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Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
48
2kṀ4762
2300
96%
chance
On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140), > OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet. I replied, > I agree to this bet. This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
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Hanson insisting on EMs is a bizarre denial of evidence

Dudes will literally write hundreds of pages about “fake humans” to act out their master-slave fantasy

It’s more like 🐙 will dominate the labor supply before “emulated brains”

One of the worst ideas of all time

At the current market price, Robin is winning.

kind of wack to commit your descendants to it though

@L pretty sure in no western countries it is legal

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Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Will we get AGI before 2032?
50% chance
Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
9% chance
By when will we have AGI?
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
6% chance
AI factories before 2030? [Remy Gangrien Vs. AI 2027 $10,000 bet]
11% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
31% chance
Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
78% chance
Will Marc Andreessen become a major investor in Anthropic before AGI is reached, as prophesied by Scott Alexander?
41% chance
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