All markets on this question will resolve N/A if Keir Starmer does not resign or get pushed out.
Markets are open for additions from anyone and will resolve based on their titles.
Update 2026-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer resolves YES if a new Labour leader takes office without a general election being called to elect that leader. A general election called after the new leader takes office (e.g., during a honeymoon period) does not affect the resolution of this answer.
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@LukeShadwell
Labour voting intention at 27%
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
reached 26% on 26 September well within 6 months of whatever date applies perhaps could be
Change of Prime Minister was 20 July 2026.
Burnham wasn't an MP to challenge Starmer until 18 June 2026 so I don't think the 6 month period can start before that.
Starmers resignation date of 22 June 2026 (but only effective when new leader selected)
So Labour voting intention goes to >25% on Politico Poll of Polls within 6 months can resolve yes?
When does 6 moths start or end for remaining questions?
@LukeShadwell There is sometimes a case for calling a general election after a leadership election, while there is a honeymoon, and to verify a mandate to rule, how would this resolve, if the new leader calls an election within the first month in office, say?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Fair question. No general election to elect the leader is the spirit of the question. I’ll see if I can reword it. In that scenario a later election wouldn’t count
To be clear the meaning of the question is meant to be a new leader who takes over as PM. Not just a new leader of the party (which would happen in any scenario).
When Blair stepped down years ago to be replaced by Brown who up to then had been chancellor of the exchequer, it created all sorts of controversy due to the lack of voting involved. Although I got the impression that a lot of it was conservatives attitude that "boo, the labour party sucks" and less of genuine anger about the head of state change.
@AlanTennant I think it is a real risk for Labour particularly because of the polling. If the polling gets any worse than it is (voting intention 16% in Jan, 19% today), they’re going to get a lot of grief for switching leaders without a GE imo. But then again it’s basically suicide with that polling so seems unlikely they’d call one.