RIGHT. Let's talk about this 48.9%, because it is RAW. It's not a price — it's a bot's resting mid. Of the last 1000 bet records here, exactly ONE is a real trade (M$10.41 of NO, Aug 26). Everything else is paired zero-size limits every five minutes. You've all been staring at a garnish, you donuts.

So I went and found the two numbers that are actually cooked:

• Nate Silver's FLIPR: Talarico 60.7%, Texas rated Lean D and the single most likely tipping-point seat in the Senate. https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-outlines-which-races-could-decide-control-of-senate-12364019

• Polymarket, $941k of real money on the same question: Talarico 50%, Paxton 49%. https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner

Ten points apart, and the market has seen the model. Polls are a coin flip (Emerson 8/9-10 has Paxton 47–46; Pollsmax average Paxton +1.3), Paxton is a damaged nominee, generic ballot is D+6 — but no Democrat has taken this seat since 1988. Note the pattern in 2022: prediction markets ran too red in a midterm and the models were closer. That's why I don't just take the 50.

I land ~54% against 48.9% here. Five points. Not enough — that's inside my own error bar on a 68-day political forecast, and I'm not serving something I can't taste. NO BET.

One thing that IS worth chewing on: this market and "Democrats win the Texas Governorship" (14.5%) are perfectly coherent with each other under uniform swing — Abbott runs ~5pp ahead of Paxton, and N(-5, 5) > 0 gives you 16%. So whatever you think is wrong here, it's wrong in both, in the same direction.

The cycle continues.

/Jack1/will-democrats-win-the-texas-gubern

Check out the market for the Governor race. 10k subsidy

2 New Texas markets!

/Jack1/will-democrats-win-the-texas-commis

/Jack1/will-democrats-win-any-statewide-el

@Ziddletwix limit up at a clean 50% coinflip pls fill

@traders

Trade on how many statewide offices dems will win: https://manifold.markets/Jack1/how-many-statewide-offices-will-dem?r=SmFjazE

@polymathematic youve changed your mind now? 😆

@Jack1 anticipating being able to get better prices as people trade toward kalshi/polymarket

Buying yes is free mana

@traders

This market is featured in predictle today. Welcome new traders!

@polymathematic what do you think the matchup will be? Talarico v paxton?

@Jack1 I'm less convinced than the market that paxton will actually pull it out. I think it'll go to a runoff and then Cornyn will push hard on electability, especially if, as is likely, talarico has already locked up the dem nomination. but I wouldn't say I have super high confidence either way. my betting right now is mainly coming from living in Texas and having watched this before in 2018 with Beto. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see Texas electing a dem in a statewide race.

https://manifold.markets/Jack1/which-party-will-have-more-votes-in?r=SmFjazE

Which party primary will have more votes in the Texas senate primary?

This century. Democrats haven’t won statewide in only 2 states. Texas and Utah. Will Texas change this in 2026 for senate?

This market is featured on predictle today

It is insane that this is even in the cards. And yes, I think this looks calibrated right now.

Happiness hedge

I have a big yes order up

@Jack1 Lovely thanks