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Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
118
3.4kṀ80k
Nov 4
97%
West Virginia
96%
Alabama
96%
Wyoming
96%
Arkansas
94%
Oklahoma
94%
Idaho
93%
South Dakota
93%
Montana
91%
Tennessee
91%
Louisiana
90%
Kentucky
89%
Mississippi
85%
South Carolina
80%
Florida (Special)
80%
Kansas
64%
Nebraska
59%
Iowa
57%
Texas
43%
Ohio (Special)
39%
Maine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

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2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
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Ordenar por:

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

comprou Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

comprou Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?
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80% chance
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41% chance
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
16% chance
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
42% chance
2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Will the Republican win Texas's 2026 Senate race, conditional on D/R nominees?
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
78% chance
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2028 elections?
46% chance
What % of the vote will the Republican get in these 2026 US Senate races?(resolves in range)
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