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Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
21
1kṀ12k
2029
0.5%
Before 01/11/2024
1.5%
Between 01/11/2024 and 30/06/2025
23%
After 30/06/2025 (by-election held)
75%
No by-election held in these seats before the next UK General Election

Market resolves when either of these is true:

  • A by-election is called in Clacton-on-Sea, Boston and Skegness, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, or Ashfield, for whatever reason.

  • A UK General Election is called.

UK Politics
UK
Reform UK
Next UK General Election
UK General Election 2024
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Have aligned the market description and criteria to clarify that the date a by-election is called will be used to resolve the market.

Reform might win a fifth seat (there are still a couple of consistencies that haven’t declared). Would that count for this question as well?

If they do, I will update the question/description, yes.

They won the seat of South Basildon and East Thurrock.

Grim news, but thanks. Have updated.

Pessoas também estão operando

What will Reform UK's change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?
941
In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
196
How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?
13.5
Which UK Constituencies will see By-Elections in the 2024 (59th) Parliament?
In the next UK general election, Will Reform UK and Restore Britain be top 2 in any seat?
44% chance
Will Reform win the next UK election?
35% chance
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
21% chance
Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?
12% chance
Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election
39% chance
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