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Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
45
100Ṁ42k
2029
20%
chance

  • Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - If Reform merges with the Tories, the market will be canceled. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:

    • If the parties merge before the election, the market is N/A.

    • Forming a coalition does not affect the market resolution criteria.

Politics
UK Politics
UK
UK Conservative Party
UK General Election 2024
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Ordenar por:
comprouṀ100NO

@Ridders I've put up some limit orders if you're interested

How does this resolve if they merge with the Tories?

@PontiMin will probably just cancel the market

@LukeShadwell to be clear here for any new traders, this means N/A if the PARTIES merge before the election. It does not mean in the case of a coalition

Pessoas também estão operando

How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
205
Will Reform win the next UK election?
41% chance
Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?
20% chance
Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
13% chance
Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election
45% chance
How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?
13.5
Will Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
20% chance
Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
26% chance
Who will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Will Restore Britain win any seats at the next UK general election?
48% chance
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