How many "safe" Senate seats will the Democrats win in 2026? (CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA)
13
400Ṁ5209Nov 5
7.34 seats
esperado1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.6%
0
0.4%
1
0.4%
2
0.7%
3
0.9%
4
0.6%
5
0.9%
6
95%
7
As of question writing, these are the 7 states that are listed as "safe" or "solid" Democratic seats on Wikipedia by all four ratings columns.
How many of them will the Democrats actually win?
Based on a consensus of credible reporting, or certified results if consensus reporting is not available prior to that. Counting independent senators who have announced they intend to caucus with the Democrats.
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@adele I don't know. I think Manifold makes odd assumptions about the range, and I'm not sure why or if there's a way to fix that at question creation time.
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