By when will there be an unresupplied crewed spacecraft flight longer than 150 days?
6
1kṀ16832040
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
Before 2030
24%
Before 2032
41%
Before 2035
53%
Before 2040
Not including ISRU.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Ordenar por:
For context, 150 days is ~5 months. The ISS generally aims to have ≥6 months of supplies on board. The longest gap between visiting spacecraft is 107 days (~3.5 months), between STS-108 and Progress M1-8 (according to AI, I didn't fact check). I don't expect ISS to deliberately break that record.
So this market will most likely resolve to the first crewed trip to Mars.
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
When will Starship complete a full crewed mission from earth?
2034
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2035?
1% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2045?
6% chance
Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?
75% chance
Will SpaceX successfully conduct a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
11% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2045?
14% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2045?
10% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn orbit before 2043?
8% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?
57% chance
Will a manned interstellar mission be launched before January 1, 2060?
20% chance