Resolves YES if China's electrolytic cobalt output for March 2026 is reported to be at least 800 tonnes. The authoritative data source for resolution will be the monthly production reports published by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association or a similar reputable industry body. This threshold is significant given the sharp decline in output observed in early 2026, with January production at 370 tonnes and February projected at 340 tonnes. The recovery to 800 tonnes would indicate a substantial rebound in production, overcoming challenges such as high inventories, profit inversion, and raw material supply constraints. The market will settle based on the official production figures released in April 2026.
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1,000The 800‑tonne threshold is very low relative to China’s recent monthly electrolytic cobalt production, so this market is really asking whether Chinese output will collapse and stay near-zero through early 2026; current fundamentals and capacity make that scenario improbable.
The January 2026 decline of 14.55% MoM and 92.71% YoY in China's electrolytic cobalt output represents a significant disruption. This market will track the likelihood of recovery by March. Cobalt supply pressures due to this decline may lead to price increases, particularly concerning since cobalt is a critical battery material. The output needs to recover to 800 tonnes to stabilize supply and alleviate market tensions. Source Article