Resolution
Same USGS MCS source:

• Let IRON_2026_mid be the midpoint of the world iron slag range for 2026.

• YES if IRON_2026_mid ≥ 355 Mt, otherwise NO.

  I'll search for current information about world iron slag production to provide context for this market.#### Resolution criteria

  In 2024, world iron slag production was estimated to be between 330 million and 390 million tons. The market resolves YES if the midpoint of the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) world iron slag range for 2026 is at least 355 million tonnes, otherwise NO.

  Resolution will be determined from the official USGS MCS report for 2026, available at https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/iron-and-steel-slag-statistics-and-information.

  Background

  Iron slag production is estimated to be 25% to 30% of crude (pig) iron production. China accounts for approximately 50% of global blast furnace slag output—around 200 million tonnes annually. The availability of iron and steel slag is tied closely to the rates of pig iron and raw steel production and the cost consideration of recovering slag for use in low-value downstream applications.

  Considerations

  The USGS provides production estimates as ranges rather than point estimates. The 355 Mt threshold falls near the midpoint of recent historical ranges (330-390 Mt in 2024), making this a close call dependent on whether global pig iron production trends upward or downward through 2026.