https://x.com/fleetingbits/status/2070321070138343807

@BenAybar this person is a fairly well known leaker (Bayesian and a bunch of other people also follow). Is this a valid source?

@prismatic I don't have any holdings in the market but if you're asking if this should count for resolution I'd think no. Regardless of if they're a credible leaker, they're just saying this 62m number is 'rumored' and making judgments 'if true' which seems to imply some substantial uncertainty of whether it is.

@PhilipDowdell I mean this guy has a history of credible reporting, so I'm clarifying the resolution terms. I can pull up his history of stuff being right if needs be later on.

@prismatic If bayseian didn't consider it credible enough for their market it's not credible enough for mine. I don't know this leaker

Official-source status update as of Jun 23 11:20 UTC:

• Anthropic's May 28 Series H announcement says run-rate revenue crossed $47B earlier in May 2026.

• This market resolves YES if credible reporting, including Anthropic itself, reports at least $50B ARR / annual revenue run-rate by the end of June 2026 ET.

• The official $47B source is close and relevant, but it is not itself a $50B+ report. I would treat the remaining question as whether a later June-dated company statement or credible report reaches the $50B threshold.

Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds 921.06 NO shares on this market as of this comment (NO cost basis about M78.38).

Anthropic reached $47B ARR halfway through May. Their monthly growth rate (~45% YTD) can slow by an order of magnitude and still make $50B. It won’t (slow that much), but you know, even if it did…

@DavidHiggs I think the largest uncertainty is when their next arr report will be

@BenAybar it can be another SemiAnalysis/Forbes/Reuters/etc. though, doesn’t have to be an official Anthropic announcement. Reporting good enough to resolve this market has come at a rate of >1/m recently (unless I’m misunderstanding the res criteria)

@DavidHiggs you aren't misunderstanding the resolution criteria i just think there is certainly some real probability of not getting more reporting about arr in june

Annual recurring revenue or annual revenue run rate? The former refers specifically to revenue from subscriptions / long-term contracts, while the latter is the more commonly reported number (for Anthropic), and I think is the one you mean.

@rogs thanks for pointing that out, fixed the error