A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
20
100Ṁ5042028
23%
chance
1H
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This market evaluates the likelihood of a nuclear weapon (dirty bomb, tactical nuke, war-heard, etc.) being used in any conflict worldwide before January 1 2029. With rising global tensions and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by several countries, the risk of nuclear weapon use is a pressing concern. Resolution will be based on reports from international news agencies and official government statements.
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This is way too high, compared to all the other Nuclear questions. For instance, see: https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-used-milit
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