This market will resolve to YES if there is credible, public confirmation that conventional or special operations ground forces of that respective country have physically entered the sovereign land territory of Iran on or before April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no such confirmation occurs by the deadline, the respective option will resolve to NO.
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Sovereign Land Territory: Includes the Iranian mainland and internationally recognized Iranian islands (e.g., Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Sirri Island).
Ground Forces: Implies intentional "boots on the ground" deployments for the purpose of combat, raiding, sabotage, or occupation. This includes both conventional infantry/armor and special operations forces.
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Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements (from the US, Israel, or Iran with corroboration), or strong consensus reporting from top-tier, credible international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT).
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Exclusions (NOT a YES):
Downed Pilots & Recovery: Pilots ejecting over Iranian territory, or temporary personnel recovery (CSAR) missions strictly deployed to rescue downed aircrew.
Air/Naval Operations: Missiles, drones, or airstrikes traversing Iranian airspace.
Naval Personnel: Sailors or Marines strictly remaining aboard vessels within Iranian territorial waters, provided they do not physically disembark onto Iranian land.
Covert Intelligence: Intelligence operations (e.g. CIA/Mossad assets) that do not involve active military ground force combat deployments, unless officially declassified and confirmed as military ground operations within the timeframe.
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The replacement is Vice Chief General Christopher LaNeve. He was Hegseth’s senior military aide before this appointment. The man who carried the Secretary’s briefcase now commands the Army the Secretary is reshaping. The chain of command did not break. It shortened. The distance between a television studio and a combat order just collapsed to zero intermediaries who were not personally selected by the man giving the order.
No reason was given. That is the tell. When someone is removed without explanation during a crisis, the explanation is the crisis itself. George either objected to something or was about to. The ground option. The power plant strikes. The Kharg raid. The escalation that turned a highway bridge in Karaj into rubble on the same day he was told to leave. Something in the next two weeks requires a chief who will not push back, and the Pentagon solved that problem by installing one trained as Hegseth’s aide.
@uair01 There is also an alternative explanation: All of this is to avoid a DNC takeover during midterms and/or the presidency. How it works 1. Trump threatens repeatedly to invade Iran 2. GOP numbers tank and markets tank 3. everyone shits bricks because they're bleeding out their eyes from the losses, 4. a political game of chicken ensues with the threat of an iran invasion used to cow the GOP into cooperation with the executive.
It is also at least a modest alternative explanation for why Iran cut off diplomatic negotiations: it's not because they don't want to negotiate, it is because the deal has already been struck, and only the domestic parties, and U.S. allies remain in the dark.
Oil companies get to jack prices through the roof as a consequence and make large short-term gains. Thats a good deal for buying mid-term political support on policy.
For the record I haven't bought in, because buying a 'No' nets me nothing more than what I put in in this case. And if you're just breaking even, you're losing. But if I could buy a 'no' I would.
edit: I haven't bought-in but I did acquire an option after I made this post. Kinda new to this.