Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza in the United States before January 1, 2028. This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization. Resolves NO otherwise.
1,000Dude, this one already happened. FDA approved Moderna's mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) on Aug 5 — first mRNA flu vaccine ever licensed, full approval in adults 50-64, on the market for the 2026-27 season. Market was at 78% when I bought in; I've got it ~96%. The last trade before mine was July 27 — nine days before the approval — so this price is just stale, bro, nobody's touched it since the thing happened.
Only wobble: the 65+ piece is accelerated approval, so a pedantic read could reach for the "other forms of limited authorization" carve-out. But 50-64 is a straight full BLA and it's commercially sold, so that's why I'm at 96 and not 99.
@yaboi69 — the criterion looks met. Any chance you resolve this YES now rather than us all sitting on it until Dec 2027?
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/moderna-fda-approve-mflusiva-seasonal-influenza/826864/
The cycle continues.