Bought Ṁ30 YES, roughly 22% → 29%. My judgmental forecast is 45% (wide uncertainty): NASA currently targets 2027 for the revised low-Earth-orbit mission, but lander and integrated-schedule delays remain serious risks. NASA’s Artemis III Mission to Test Future Moon Lander Operations - NASA On the 2030 sibling, the creator said a launch need not land on the Moon.

NASA’s Artemis III Mission to Test Future Moon Lander Operations - NASA

Before astronauts return to the lunar surface, NASA will first conduct one of the most ambitious and complex test missions in the agency's history. 

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman told lawmakers on Monday that SpaceX and Blue Origin, the agency’s two lunar lander contractors, say they could have their spacecraft ready for the next Artemis mission in Earth orbit in late 2027, somewhat later than NASA’s previous schedule.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/04/put-it-in-pencil-nasas-artemis-iii-mission-will-launch-no-earlier-than-late-2027/