Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the percentage of matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup where the team that scored the first goal went on to win the match.
The first scorer winning rate is calculated as: $$\text{Winning Rate} = \frac{\text{Matches where the first-scoring team won}}{\text{Total matches with at least one goal scored}}$$
0-0 Draws: Matches that end 0-0 are excluded from consideration.
Definition of a Win: Consistent with official FIFA and Opta/FBref statistical conventions, a "win" is defined as a victory in regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time) or extra time (30 minutes). Matches decided by a penalty shootout are officially classified as draws.
Own Goals: An own goal counts as the opening goal for the opposing team.
Background
Historically, scoring the opening goal is a massive advantage in soccer. An analysis of World Cup tournaments between 1990 and 2014 found that teams scoring the first goal won 69.77% of those matches. In knockout stages, this rate historically rises to over 80%, though scoring in the first 15 minutes of a match drops the win probability to around 77% as opponents have more time to equalize.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup features an expanded format with 48 teams and 104 matches. This larger sample size and the inclusion of more lower-seeded teams could lead to more volatile matches, potentially altering the historical win rate of the first goal scorer.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself.
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@mods As pointed out by @bobalobascrob there are some mistakes in the resolution of this market. Could you re-resolve ">= 70%" and ">= 68%" to No?
Hello, this market was resolved incorrectly. I bet based on a Claude analysis as well. The first scorer winning rate should resolve to 67.71% (65/96), with statistics directly derived from Wikipedia's match pages.
We agree that the total number of matches is 104 (and the number of eligible matches is 96).
However, of these 96 matches, there were 65 first scorer wins, 28 matches where the first scorer drew or lost, and 3 leading to a shootout (which does not count as a first scorer win by your market's description). These 3 are Germany–Paraguay, Netherlands–Morocco, and Australia–Egypt.
Potential errors could include Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast (in which IC scored first but it was initially misreported as a German first goal), and Morocco 4–2 Haiti (in which the opening goal was an own goal and thus by your standard counted for Haiti which lost).
Can you please re-resolve to 67.71%? I had a lot of mana on the line.
FYI here is the correct stats and derivation: 2026 FIFA World Cup — First-Scorer Win Rate: Full Match Audit
@bobalobascrob still investigating. i'm on free plan for claude and often have to wait for token clock to reset...