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Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?
62
2kṀ19k
2029
15%
chance

resolves YES if

  • trump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time

  • other republicans campaign trump as a party candidate

  • he wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running

resolves NO if

  • trump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close

this market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election

US Politics
Politics
Trump
Republican Party
2024 US Presidential Election
US Democracy
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if the war, there are no elections

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c797q57ple9o

What about things like 1) seizing power 2) the theoretical vice-president -> president loophole ??

comprou Ṁ1 YES

Related:

@strutheo Has the NO condition been fulfilled already? See this comment.

@Quroe no because he flip flops a lot, ill amend that

@strutheo Are the YES conditions slated as "and" or "or"? Does only one need to be fulfilled, or all 3?

@Quroe the wording of the third one implies "or"

This market but more shenanigans allowed:
https://manifold.markets/TimothyBandors/will-trump-win-a-third-term-as-pres

reposted

upgraded to plus

reposted

bump

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