🔗LINK: Tracking Spreadsheet
This market works as follows. Each answer represents one investment idea. Each answer will eventually resolve to a percent, which will be the ROI after 12 months starting on Jan 1 2027.
Each 1% above/below the midpoint represents 1 point gained/lost over 12 months.
100% indicates a return of +50%
80% indicates a return of +30%
70% indicates a return of +20%
50% indicates a return of 0%
30% indicates a return of -20%
20% indicates a return of -30%
0% indicates a return of -50%
On Jan 1st I'll put $500 into each of the top 10 choices on this list. If there is any profit after 12 months, I will share 5% of it among the top 5 spots on this market's leaderboard!
Additional Rules
Must be able to be easily invested in by an average USA citizen
I reserve the right to refuse any suggestion
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Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator may extend the market close date by one month if there is insufficient trading activity or uncertainty before making the investment purchases.
Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The start date for the 12-month investment period has been changed from January 1, 2026. The stocks have not yet been purchased.
Update 2026-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 5% profit share will be distributed among the top 5 traders on this market's leaderboard (not the top 5 investment choices or the choices that generated the most profit).
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The description is confusing
> which will be the ROI after 12 months starting on Jan 1 2027.
> on June 1st I'll put $500 into each of the top 10 choices on this list. If there is any profit after 12 months
The first quote seems to say that the market will resolve on December 1st, 2027 which is 12 months after Jan 1st, 2027
The second quote seems to say the market will resolve on June 1st, 2027
@strutheo a far better idea is to put everything into a total stock market index fund. I have no idea what some cool 30 stocks will do in a year.
Evidence is very clear, however, that over 30 years the cool 30 is almost certain to underperform the total stock market index.
@Gen I also request Tylenol producer Kenvue KVUE but you don't have to add it if you don't want to. It may be acquired by Kimberly-Clark for a stock/cash combo, which might be annoying to track