🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (46 DONE)
44
2.6kṀ6166
Jan 5
47%
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
49%
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
50%
Cy Young award winner announced
51%
Third dune movie releases
52%
anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse
54%
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
57%
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
59%
manifold raises more money
59%
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
61%
coup in an african country
61%
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
62%
Hades 3 announced (game)
65%
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
65%
apple announces a smart ring
66%
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
66%
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
66%
playboi carti releases an album
70%
noam chomsky passes away
70%
fourth Knives Out movie announced
70%
grok 5 release date

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)


Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

  • Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025).

  • Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the first Solar eclipse of the year": annular eclipses do not count.

  • Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The Nintendo Direct on February 5th counts as the first Nintendo Direct of the year (not the Tomodachi Life Direct from January 29th).

  • Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The February 5th Nintendo Direct counts as a valid Nintendo Direct for this answer.

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>Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
"any" seems quite broad. So recent short term, limited area ceasefire?
Ceasefire extended across Ukraine's Kherson region, officials say
that is 27th so before apple touch laptop?

and MLB last game of world series was 28th Oct (after Apple touchscreen)

@mods can you fix the following

beyonce album 38

iphone fold 39

hijack 40

first atlantic hurricane 41

nobel peace 42

eod lief erikson 43

mld world series 44

touch laptop 45

aberto a Ṁ10 YES at 44% order

Beyoncé released a B'DAY (20th Anniversary Deluxe Edition) album on September 4, 2026, to celebrate her 45th birthday and the 20th anniversary of her original 2006 sophomore album B'Day.

aberto a Ṁ50 YES at 43% order

@strutheo
Beyoncé released a B'DAY (20th Anniversary Deluxe Edition) album on September 4, 2026, to celebrate her 45th birthday and the 20th anniversary of her original 2006 sophomore album B'Day.
Not sure if that means rearranging some resolved items?

MLB first game 23 October 2026

Apple announces a touchscreen laptop, happened 28th October 2026

@ChristopherRandles
can @mods resolve first atlantic hurricane to 40
nobel peace prize winner announced to 41

Lief Erickson resolve to 42

Unresolve

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the

@strutheo can @mods resolve

first atlantic hurricane to 40
nobel peace prize winner announced to 41
Lief Erickson resolve to 42

Unresolve
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the

@strutheo The deed is done.

@Quroe The earthquake 8.0 still needs to be unresolved?

@ChristopherRandles Oop! Yup, good catch!

aberto a Ṁ10 NO at 39% order

Hijacking since you have resolved elsewhere

aberto a Ṁ10 NO at 38% order

@strutheo iphone fold release date known: 23 October announced on Sept 9th do we wait for that date to see if that is true?

comprou Ṁ1 NO

@strutheo
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
4 Sept

@strutheo Following have happened:
Patriot games ending 11th Aug
Solar eclipse 12th Aug
100 SpaceX rocket 97 Falcon 9, 1 Falcon Heavy, 2 Starship 19th Aug
List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches - Wikipedia
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=rocket_174&tab=past

looked fairly thoroughly through others

Perhaps Third dune movie officially announced looking more like it will need to be replaced?

comprou Ṁ2 NO

@strutheo

Congrats on 100,000 traders
before patriot games start I think

@strutheo FIFA world cup ends 19th July
First Pacific hurricane 20th July
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep06/ep062026.discus.009.shtml
Fausto the first hurricane of the 2026 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Those 2 can resolve thanks

aberto a Ṁ250 YES at 32% order

25 July 2026 2nd Pacific hurricane
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep07/ep072026.discus.007.shtml
800 PM MST Sat Jul 25 2026
The Dvorak estimate from TAFB is up to T4.0/65 kt, while the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and DPRINT estimates are between 65 and 77 kt. Based on these data, Genevieve is upgraded to a 70-kt hurricane.

@strutheo mekkhal was already hurricane as of 6/21, but technically a typhoon. Are we limited to what the Us National Hurricane Center says?

@JimD That was a Typhoon. Yes it is same as a hurricane but I think we don't count these eg Typhoon Sinlaku has not counted.

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