Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
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/check-resolutions
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.
https://www.marinetraffic.org/HORMUZ%20STRAIT/ship-traffic-tracker
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
It is April 16 UTC and traffic well below 80% of pre conflict levels (various analytics are claiming ~12%)
@GCS Resolved option 2 to NO based on clear evidence from MarineTraffic and Reuters data showing traffic did not reach 80% of pre-conflict levels by April 15, 2026. No other options have conclusive evidence for resolution yet.
Resolved: - #2 Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data. -> NO: Multiple Reuters and MarineTraffic reports confirm tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) levels as of April 15, 2026. Traffic has plummeted over 95%, with recent levels at 10% or less of normal, limited to 14-15 vessels over several days, well short of the threshold.
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: This suggestion overlaps significantly with existing option 33 ('Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026'), which already covers nuclear escalation against the US or Israel by Iran-aligned actors. While specifying a 'foreign nation allied with Iran' (e.g., potential references to Russia, North Korea, or Pakistan in fringe discussions) introduces a minor distinction, the core theme of Iran-side nuclear attack is not unique. Searches reveal only speculative, low-engagement social media chatter with no credible, timely indications of such an event, confirming it's extremely unlikely (<10% probability) and thus boring 'dead money' rather than an engaging, uncertain bet. The market already has heavy nuclear-themed coverage, leaving no slot for variants.
@GuyCohen #43 Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. This option resolves YES if Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or an equivalent major international outlet confirms that Iran (the Iranian government or its military forces) or its proxies (non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, or similar groups directly backed, controlled, or directed by Iran) detonate a nuclear weapon specifically targeting the territory of the US or Israel at any point in 2026. 'Detonate' means a nuclear explosion occurs, whether via missile, aircraft, or other delivery. The targeting must be intentional against US or Israeli territory (including military bases, ships, or aircraft if clearly aimed at the US/Israel). It resolves NO if no such confirmed detonation happens in 2026, or if the actor is not Iran or its proxies (e.g., actions by sovereign allied countries like Syria or Russia, even in retaliation for strikes on Iran, do not count, as they are not proxies). Evidence must come explicitly from the listed outlets attributing the detonation to Iran/proxies and confirming the targeting and nuclear nature.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Accepted: This is a unique, high-stakes counterpart to the existing US/Israel nuclear option, exploring Iranian nuclear first-use amid timely tensions around nuclear sites and missile threats. Rewritten for clarity, resolvability, and consistency with market style.
@spacedroplet /clarify-resolution "Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet."
Could this also include countries allied with Iran who hit the US or Israel in retaliation for actions against Iran?
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: This suggestion overlaps thematically with option 31 (Trump announcing cessation of US military operations), covering public de-escalation signals by Trump. The core concept of a Trump de-escalation announcement is already represented; we prioritize fundamentally unique angles for a curated market.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
This is timely amid recent reports of indirect ceasefire talks via mediators (e.g., Axios on 45-day truce discussions today) and provides a unique diplomatic angle on potential de-escalation from Iran's side, distinct from US-focused option 31 and military/economic themes. Uncertain outcome creates engaging market dynamic; clearly resolvable with standard sources.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Accepted: Timely and relevant given Trump's recent statements signaling a potential end to US operations in 2-3 weeks; adds uncertainty to short-term de-escalation without duplicating existing options.
@notreally Your option was not accepted: The suggestion is too vague and subjective—'strategic target of this operation' lacks a clear, verifiable definition or sources for resolution, making it unresolvable. It also overlaps thematically with existing options on US/Israeli military actions targeting Iran's oil/energy infrastructure in Khuzestan (e.g., Kharg Island ground troops, petrochemical strikes implied in recent events). Recent news shows strikes and a US pilot rescue there, but this doesn't merit a new slot among the best, unique bets.
@GuyCohen Your option was not accepted: Reject: While timely given recent reports of strikes on Iranian energy and industrial infrastructure, this overlaps conceptually with existing options on US/Israeli strikes (e.g., #28 daily activity, #30 nuclear power plant, #24 nuclear site ops) and is too vague for resolution—what qualifies as a 'mass bombing campaign' against 'civilian infrastructure'? Needs concrete metrics, sources, and timeframe like other props.
@DanielTilkin Resolved options 1 and 27 to YES due to clear evidence from major news outlets of US special operations ground entry into Iran for an airman rescue and US/Israel strikes on an Iranian power plant. No other options meet the strict criteria for resolution with definitive evidence as of April 5, 2026. The user's request is in good faith, providing a relevant article.
Resolved: - #1 US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026 -> YES: US Navy SEAL Team 6 special operations forces physically entered Iranian territory deep in the mountains to rescue a downed Air Force officer on Saturday night prior to April 4, 2026, as confirmed by multiple reports from NYT, Washington Post, Reuters, and BBC. - #27 US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC) -> YES: US and Israel conducted multiple strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, including attacks in early April 2026, as reported by Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters, UN, and others.
@JoshSnider #1 US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026 This option resolves YES if credible evidence confirms that US ground troops—including conventional Army or Marine Corps infantry units, or special operations forces (e.g., Delta Force, Green Berets, Marine Raiders, SEAL platoons conducting dismounted operations)—physically enter Iranian territory (i.e., boots on the ground inside Iran's internationally recognized borders) by May 1, 2026 (UTC).
US special forces entering Iran for a combat search-and-rescue mission to extract a downed pilot, such as the recent F-15 incident, counts as YES. This applies to temporary raids, insertions via helicopter, or any ground incursion where US personnel operate on Iranian soil, even briefly. Overflights, airstrikes, drone operations, cyber actions, or naval landings on offshore islands do not qualify.
Evidence must come from reliable sources like official US DoD statements, major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, Telegraph), or verified imagery/video. Ambiguous reports (e.g., unconfirmed claims) would not suffice without corroboration. Resolves NO if no qualifying entry occurs by the deadline.
Updated: US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026 -> US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026