My USD net worth exceeds mana net worth
4
200á¹€492029
August 26, 2028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
2025
15%
2026
15%
2027
15%
2028
16%
2029
15%
2030
15%
2031 or later (or never)
current net worth USD: ~0, mana: 320k
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Will my all-time profit exceed 100,000 mana by 2027?
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How much mana will 1 USD buy by the end of 2030?
N/A
What will I think the mana:USD exchange rate is, as of 2026-07-01?
Who will be the first user to reach 10M mana in profit?
Who will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
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@jim I may actually do it. To hedge in case my skills and/or startup get obsoleted by AGI. I am imaging it's a pretty short amount of time after AGI when the stocks get huge valuations but before ASI obsoletes all those things in favor of some new paradigm. Or maybe the current measures of wealth survive the transition and determine who gets more computation in the ASI era?
@skibidist hard to explain my argument for it quickly but yes, you got the conclusion. I think pre-ASI wealth has a decent change of being one of the factors which determines a person's post-ASI compute-budget.
@skibidist and since lifespan scales linearly with compute budget the law of diminishing marginal returns doesn't hold
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Will my all-time profit exceed 100,000 mana by 2027?
66% chance
How much mana will 1 USD buy by the end of 2030?
N/A
What will I think the mana:USD exchange rate is, as of 2026-07-01?
Who will be the first user to reach 10M mana in profit?
Who will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)