Just in case anyone asks, since I've added new prop bets since the market opened, the questions that are "within X days" are starting from the day the prop bet was added.
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For any answer involving a live address by a leader: pre-recorded speeches broadcast post-mortem will not count toward resolution.
Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A "major attack" is defined as an incident where at least 5 people die. This includes drones, shooting, and other methods of attack.
Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All resolution criteria must be met by the market close time of May 31st, 2026.
Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is seeking input on the definition of 'critical infrastructure' for a cyberattack-related prop bet, specifically whether it requires critical public infrastructure (power grid, financial systems, water) or whether a corporation's internal network (e.g., the Stryker hack) would be sufficient to resolve. This remains unresolved pending further clarification.
Update 2026-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a permanent ceasefire covering all fronts occurs before market close, the creator will wait until end of May to resolve answers rather than resolving immediately.
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@traders NEW PROP BETS:
1. US ground forces land on Kharg Island by April 15
2. Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial tanker traffic by April 30
3. Strike on a nuclear power plant causes a radiation incidentÂ
4. Any ground raid to seize enriched uranium stockpile
5. >= 50 American soldiers are killed
6. >= 50 Israeli soldiers are killed
I am looking to around 6-8 new prop bets, so please leave a comment if you have ideas!
Many of these prop betsâlike naval strikes or ground raidsâare the 'what', but the following market is the 'when'. If you're betting on an escalation, this is the specific tracker for when that tension translates back into a multi-front rocket event: https://manifold.markets/231007/when-will-israel-next-experience-a
@prismatic if the current ceasefire will turn out to be permanent and include all fronts (Israel and Hezbollah, I'm looking at you), would you solve all answers in this market immediately or wait until end of May either way?
@someoneR5c8l hezbollah gonna keep firing I reckon. If it was just them casually firing on Israel on Iran's bidding it could have ended there with a general ceasefire.
But Israel now occupies Lebanese territory and based on historical evidence they are unlikely to reverse that voluntarily. So Hezbollah have lost both territory and 'face'.
So IMO that translates to even if Iran-US/Israel has a complete ceasefire, Hezbollah will continue (even if they later blame any strikes on 'rogue elements' based on how it goes).
Also, I realize this can be a bit ambiguous. Thoughts on whether this means critical public infrastructure (power grid, financial systems, water) or whether a corporation's internal network (i.e., the Stryker hack) is enough to resolve?
I've sold my position to prevent bias for one side or another.
@traders NEW PROP BETS:
1. US ground forces land on Kharg Island by April 15
2. Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial tanker traffic by April 30
3. Strike on a nuclear power plant causes a radiation incidentÂ
4. Any ground raid to seize enriched uranium stockpile
5. >= 50 American soldiers are killed
6. >= 50 Israeli soldiers are killed
I am looking to around 6-8 new prop bets, so please leave a comment if you have ideas!
@someoneR5c8l see resolution criteria. "Just in case anyone asks, since I've added new prop bets since the market opened, the questions that are "within X days" are starting from the day the prop bet was added."
it will definitely be resolved tmrw tho considering the infrastructure no longer exists
@prismatic Iranian state media has announced homeboy has already been seriously injured in an Israeli strike. I don't think this guy makes it to Wednesday before a bunker buster with "Masaltov" written on the side pastes him
New prop bet ideas:
-US "boots on the ground" in Iran
-US gas prices top 2022 peak
-The Strait of Hormuz starts to see activity ramp up again
-Donald Trump makes a noticeable attempt at de-escalation
-The Iranian government makes a noticeable attempt at de-escalation
-Iran is still the top news story on CNN on March 31
@traders
NEW PROP BETS:
- Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
- Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
- Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
- A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
- Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
- Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
@traders
NEW PROP BETS ADDED:
- Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days
- Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days
- Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon
- QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days
- A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz
If you want any others, leave a comment below!