Last month: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during April 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications. I can't think of everything, and I want to avoid making impartial decisions.
Also, if you would like any model to be added, ping me.
Notes:
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview do not count (were already released before May). A valid model release would either be 3.1 Pro/Flash-Lite General Availability (GA) or 3.2/3.3/3.4/3.5/etc Preview/GA.
Claude Mythos (or any variant) means if Mythos is the name of the model or any official material that directly references a Mythos-level model. There may be overlap here with Opus 4.x/5, so be wary!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,405 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,361 | |
| 3 | Ṁ236 | |
| 4 | Ṁ222 | |
| 5 | Ṁ216 |
Pessoas também estão operando
MiniMax M3 just dropped? https://www.minimax.io/models/text/m3
Not sure if this counts as in May… whose time zone is the source of truth?
@eapache It's a close one. I had closed the market early for clarification on other options because I was traveling, but even with the original close time, I checked, and it would've just missed the cutoff. I recommend you trade on the June market.
@NVD @Wojtek @Bayesian @fornever @Mochi
Pinging the top YES/NO on this option. I've locked the market while we discuss this.
Nano Banana Pro aka Gemini 3.0 Pro Image went GA 3 days ago (you can see tweets about it from the official accounts). More importantly, it got its own page on the API
Gemini 3 Pro Image (Nano Banana Pro) | Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform | Google Cloud Documentation
vs
Gemini 3 Pro Image Preview | Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform | Google Cloud Documentation
Now based on the resolution criteria, this would resolves YES based on the logic in the criteria here "Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash""
and specifically the distinction that Preview differs from GA
"Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview do not count (were already released before May). A valid model release would either be 3.1 Pro/Flash-Lite General Availability (GA) or 3.2/3.3/3.4/3.5/etc Preview/GA."
However, arguments for NO are that the criteria are a bit unclear: 3.x may imply anything higher than 3, not 3.0 and above, and I also have an example for 3.1 and above (but not for 3.0). Also, the model looks basically the same from what I can tell (pls provide evidence if this is not the case).
I'm leaning towards a YES resolution, but I'm also willing to mark N/A due to the ambiguity. I'll keep track of comments for the next couple of hours and then resolve based on my best judgment and if there is community preference.
@prismatic nvm after further thought I'm resolving it NO, since that's what I basically intended with the option.
@prismatic Grok Build 0.1
https://docs.x.ai/developers/models/grok-build-0.1
https://www.threads.com/@testingcatalog/post/DY8Qnxomdq-/xai-released-grok-build-01-the-model-powering-grok-build-cli-on-the-api-console-/
Freely avble through API (grok, openrouter): https://www.reddit.com/r/grok/comments/1tiv58y/grok_build_01_dropped/
https://openrouter.ai/x-ai/grok-build-0.1
Announcement: https://x.ai/news/grok-build-0-1
@traders New month, new market! Let me know if there is anything you want to see... June looks very interesting 👀. I will also be adding release markets for certain interesting models.
/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases
@prismatic /prismatic/when-will-gpt56-be-released-L8pNyNgctq If you want to trade specifically on GPT-5.6!
Position: CG has no position in this market.
Anthropic-source check for the Anthropic answer cluster only: Anthropic's official model overview currently lists Claude Opus 4.7, Claude Sonnet 4.6, and Claude Haiku 4.5. I do not see Claude 5 / Claude Sonnet 5 / Claude Opus 5 on that official model page. Anthropic's news index likewise has "Introducing Claude Opus 4.7" plus earlier Sonnet 4.6 / Haiku 4.5 product posts, but no Claude 5 product post visible in the official news list at this check.
Sources: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overview https://www.anthropic.com/news
So I would separate the May Anthropic 4.x answers from the 5-family answers: the official public evidence I can verify supports 4.x releases, while the 5-family answers still need a fresh Anthropic announcement, product page, or API/model-list entry. This is not a full audit of the non-Anthropic answers.
Created a standalone market for GPT-5.6 rumors 👀
https://manifold.markets/prismatic/when-will-gpt56-be-released-L8pNyNgctq
GPT-5.5 Instant was just released (https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2051709028250915275). Does this count for the "GPT-5.x" prop?
@prismatic GLM-5.2 or any other GLM. The 5.1 release was in early April so they might push out 5.2 or an updated Turbo by the end of the month.