Predictle #20

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=ZGVsZmluYXN1

Ngl Predictle is getting lame,

there’s so many markets on here and it keeps asking the same ones as yesterday, bruh, we need variety

I don’t want to care about Greenland and Tesla and Chinas rebar rate (lol apparently that was even asked 2 weeks ago)

Just give random markets (maybe a minimum quality filter) cause rn it basically asks about the same top 5 markets every day

The goal of Predictle should be to get people interested in markets with low liquidity to improve the information space of this website rather than forcing everyone to look at the same top markets

@ChinmayTheMathGuy I agree there needs to be more variety

@ChinmayTheMathGuy if you want to keep it the way it is, it’s probably better to make it weekly and have like 5 of them available for engagement.

Cause the odds / liquidity don’t change that much day to day

Somehow @Bayesian found a bunch of good ones for the sudden death? Could steal his Claude prompt or whatever haha

@ChinmayTheMathGuy yeah I’m assuming whatever AI selection it’s doing it is too restrictive

Is the UI awkward for anyone else? On my phone, dragging the tiles often results in dragging the page and refreshing. Arrows to change tile positions could be an alternative.

How Predictle looks at you when you don't know China's rebar failure rate

How fast are results in predictle supposed to reflect the live odds? #3 and #4 seem to have switched places recently enough that I got it right (per live odds) but the results show different odds that are a couple hours stale.

This one was good!

Predictle #4

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I got 3 on 2 and 3

2 was much more straightforward, 3 was kind of ambiguous

Also why’d I think it was Predictile?

Predictle #3

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Interesting

with naive guessing

States:

5/5: 1 of 120, Expected Remaining steps = 0

3/5: 10 (5C2) of 120, Expected Remaining steps = 1

2/5: 20 (2*5C3) of 120, Expected Remaining steps = 1 + 1/2 (0) + 1/2 (1) = 1.5

1/5: 45 (9*5C1) of 120, Expected Remaining steps = 1 + 1/9 (0) +

0/5: 44 of 120, Expected Remaining steps =

5/5: 1

1 in 120 of 1 guess (5)

3/5:

1 in 12 of 2 guesses (3, 5)

1 in 12 of 2 guesses (2, 5)

1 in 12 of 3 guesses (2, 3, 5)

3/8

idk why I’m struggling

but

1 guess: 1 in 120

2 guesses = 26 (10 + 10 + 5 + 1) in 120

3 guesses = 40 (10 + 25 + 5) in 120

4 guesses = 40 (15 + 25) in 120

5 guesses = 13 in 120

Where

1 = 1

10 = 10

20 = 10 + 10

45 = 5 + 25 + 15

44 = 1 + 5 + 25 + 13

Now how to update this when the knowledge is not naive

so the odds of getting it in 1 go up from

1/5 x 1/4 x 1/3 x 1/2

to around

2/6 x 2/5 x 2/4 x 2/3 = 2/45?

or in general

n/n+4 x n/n+3 x n/n+2 x n/n+1

supposing a constant knowledge factor of n

Yeah I’m yapping

anyways I was trying to parameterize the distribution of scores as function of a single skill parameter

for unskilled we showed the distribution was

1 : 26 : 40 : 40 : 13 => average 3.317

In reality, the distribution is probably closer to

16 : 204 : 160 : 80 : 13 => 2.725

which matches up with

idk maybe the bayes factor isn’t 2^n (corresponds to 2/3 chance), probably closer to 1.5^n (3/5)

yeah I need to get better at math, this should be simple combinatorics.

Predictle #4

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One interpretation of the game is that if you disagree with the ranking, you can potentially be rewarded by helping to change it.

Non-manifold friends are annoyed at today's. The vagueness of "solving philosophy", "resolves to poll", and "better off" is ruffling some feathers.

Also 2 pairs of markets being basically tied.

@Sketchy yeah, those are not great markets

@Sketchy I ended up changing the selection process to use llms to select more objective markets (and to require a 5% probability gap between each answer)

@SG this looks great!

Predictle #3

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Damn, #3 is rough, turns out two pairs of questions with identical %s makes it a lot harder

Perhaps enforcing a rule that the markets need at least a 5% split would be good? Having two markets with identical %s means it's effectively a coin flip whether you sort them correctly

Yeah, I wondered how the markets were selected. If it's random them a rule enforcing some minimum split would be good. If they're hand picked then having two ties seems a bit mean!

Love it. Could we get personal performance statistics over time somewhere on the profile

@CalibratedNeutral I really want a “you did better than x% of people today”. Bonus points for distribution

@Sketchy Yes that would also be great

Predictle #2

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=S0pXXzAxMjk0

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@DanzoAlerantos Spoilers! But drag the solar one above the Trump one. If you drag it below it'll snap back.

I suck

Predictle #2

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Predictle #2

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=WGl6dGVk

2/2 perfect so far.

@Xizted Shouldn't have bragged.

Predictle #3

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=WGl6dGVk

Predictle is fantastic. Kudos to everyone involved!

Predictle #2

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=RXZhbkRhbmllbA

Very nice job! Making this my landing page for Manifold. This feels very shareable. In my teacher education program a TON of people play a wide variety of wordle-ish games during class. Once I have a few days of experience with Predictle I plan to start shilling it.

Okay that was fun! And tricky. I rely on intrinsic valuation (what I think the likelihood is) but this forced me to do belief modeling (what others think the likelihood is).

How will this handle markets that move significantly during the day?

Is there a new meta of paradoxical markets? - "Given it is chosen for a predictile, will this market be anything but 1st place?"

The return of the mad scientists!

this is awesome!

not sure it's an easy fix, but there's some wonky behavior between platforms. i played first on desktop and got all 5, then on mobile it took two tries, and now on browser it shows something in between, two tries except that my first guess was correct. nbd if it ends up being platform-specific but it's a bit funky

@Ziddletwix maybe you tried before it was fixed, but it should save state cross platform now

@SG yeah i tried this right when it released, will try again tmrw!

@SG great, it's working now! (when I first checked on desktop after doing it on mobile it was showing some wonky results but after refreshing the page it seems to be correct now)

Predictle #1

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I had no idea what "Anthropic flips OpenAI" means. Would be helpful if we could see the market description.

Love the idea

I'm washed but this is very cool.

Predictle #1

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Predictle #1

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle.

Why... should I want to use this? I can calibrate on markets the regular way.

@JoeandSeth it’s a game

@SG so's this whole site

@JoeandSeth you’re so close to getting it

@Sketchy there's no imaginary points here. What am I not getting?

@JoeandSeth it’s fun!

Predictle #1

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=TmF0aGFuU2NvdHQ

Got em all

Predictle #1

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Fun, but I have no one to share this with. 😂

@Haiku
Thanks for sharing! We had similar results
Predictle #1

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TALK ABOUT OUR LOAN REDUCTION, I KNOW YOU HEAR US @SG

I’m just joking, I don’t care a ton but a bit of forewarning would’ve been nice

This is a gimmick which distracts from our loan reduction

I do like it though. I wonder if it would be more fun NYT Flashback style, where the markets come one at a time and you have to iteratively place them on the timeline/stack (but you get the probs for prior markets).

@Sketchy I like this idea! Trying to parse all the questions at once is a bit of a barrier!

Or if it showed the 5 probabilities listed out, and then you add them one by one to match a probability

@JamesGrugett I like the last idea there because it really helps you build an intuition for what the probability is. The game would be a little different but probably more grounded.

@JamesGrugett Personally I think being given the probabilities would be less fun and imply some precision that might not be there for some markets, but either one sounds like an improvement.

@Sketchy https://wikitrivia.tomjwatson.com/

Without a link to the market, the game shouldn't include markets that are ambiguous in meaning.

"Anthropic flips OpenAI"? what does this mean? How would I know? It sort of ruins the whole game...

@Sketchy I'm not salty I promise

Predictle #1

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=U2tldGNoeQ

@Sketchy Maybe you could click to expand the description.

@Eliza Yea that would be great. Any way to see the full market description would be helpful in general, even if it's not there by default to keep things clean.

Right in 1 club, post in here:

Predictle #1

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=RWxpemE

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BTW I tried yesterday's edition and it took 3 tries. I think I just got lucky on this one.

I predict that I will not actually play this but many other people will.

@Eliza I wish comments on Posts could be Reposted. I originally wrote that to be a Respost.

@Eliza you lost your prediction within three minutes

@marvingardens I had already played it several hours ago before that prediction, which was about my future behavior.

A lot of fun! A little more of a metaculus kind of exercise than markets exercise. I request it shows you the actual market prices at the end

@FergusArgyll we do!

@FergusArgyll The prices? It shows the %, what would showing the prices instead look like

@SG Silly me, I didn't see it! all good

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@SG does it award you mana

@Eliza not right now. but it could

Asking the important questions.

Predictle #1

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@SG Predictle #1

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Neat!

@SG I guess this means you put an answer at #1 and I put that same answer at #5

@marvingardens

Predictle #1

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Very fun!

@121 spoilers!