We’re proud to announce we’re launching a new platform to do real-money trading: MNX (https://mnx.fi).
MNX is a decentralized futures exchange targeting sophisticated traders and focused on the AI economy. MNX will have prediction markets, but the focus will be on futures and perps.
MNX is a separate company from Manifold. But Manifold is not going away or changing. We love Manifold and will continue building it.
Manifold will remain the place for fun user-created markets and a more casual, social atmosphere. MNX is the venue for more serious trading on a smaller, curated subset of markets. The two are complementary: On Manifold, you can bet on whether your friend will join Anthropic. On MNX, you can bet $100k on Anthropic’s valuation.
We've spent four years learning what prediction markets are good at and where they fall short. MNX is our attempt to take what we've learned and apply it to serious financial infrastructure for the AI economy. We're incredibly excited about it.
Check out our launch thread on Twitter for the full story:
https://x.com/MNX_fi/status/2024215098357887404
I like how MNX has silver, I'm assuming it's the metal 🥄 and not an AI related thing. Some places allow for trading on what will happen to the price of gold, I've often thought, hey theres a whole periodic table of other options.
You could let us use our Manifold mana on MNX too, as well as being able to use USD/GBP etc…, a shared pot between the two sites. Obviously any trades where you use mana wont be able to be withdrawn as USD.
@AlanTennant No regulator on the planet is going to let people use fake money to directly impact futures prices in that way
@ChurlishGambit it shouldn't effect them, make the fake money (mana) unable to move the real money markets.
@AlanTennant I'm thinking as well that if you have no mana (don't use Manifold Markets) then any UI assoceated with betting in mana shouldn't show up for you.
@AlanTennant Dogg they can't even keep this site working correctly, do you really think they can build a simultaneous double-UI into the new site?
It is darkly hilarious that some people talk about the AI economy as if humans are at all likely to participate in it.
Can we convert our mana to use on MNX?
Seems like Manifold will probably fall on the wayside and stop being a focus.
@BlackCrusade People in the US won't even be able to use MNX. But for all others, yes, the exchange ratio for Manifold Fun Bux to Real Dollars will be 0:1
@Simon74fe good idea, riffing on the "mana" concept they could name it "manifold". manifold.markets would be a good domain name for it!
How do you have 100 million USD in trading volume on multiple markets when your twitter announcement has only 20k views
@retr0id A small minority of people are chomping at the bit to be completely obsoleted. Unfortunately, many of these people are EAs.
@KarlWang Sounds more like a hypothesis & one that only is valid for people already sucked into the LessWrong cult
ngl this sucks. manifold was fun because it wasn't just another gambling website. if you guys clearly dont have any moral qualms about profiting off of real money gambling then wtf is the point of using manifold
@Racheld7njf There's no real point, anymore. This place is just gonna wither under mismanagement and bots until they burn the last of the investor cash
@Qoiuoiuoiu it’s just disappointing, profiting off of real-money gambling is pretty shitty and makes me feel less good about using manifold given this is what admins are focusing on
@Racheld7njf Prediction markets, stocks and gambling have a lot in common, but they are not the same. I appreciate the move to not turn Manifold into something else entirely, but to build something new instead..
@Racheld7njf I see what you're saying but at the same time MNX isn't focusing on the kind of degenerate gambling that other markets are doing. MNX (to me at least) seems a lot more serious about actually being predictive.
I've been around this site long enough to know that the admins are passionate about prediction markets, and also are compassionate when it comes to users.
Take the example of the Market, where staff refunded Isaac $20,000.
@Qoiuoiuoiu If it weren't just gambling, & they were more serious about prediction, they wouldn't include leverage as an option.
@Qoiuoiuoiu I’m actually not familiar with that refund, but that is very comforting to hear. I guess it remains to be seen if MNX manages to stay serious? Real money prediction markets seem to always become degenerate gambling so I will be impressed if they avoid that.
@Racheld7njf What is "degenerate gambling" to you? To me it's a fault of the participants, not the platform, but perhaps the term means something different to you.
@HankyUSA I think it’s partially a participant problem, but it’s also a platform issue. Prediction markets are one thing, but selling real-money prediction contracts on fully random/unpredictable events (i.e. the new polymarket BTC 5 minute gambling). That is almost completely random except via market manipulation, so it has of course encouraged market manipulation. That’s a platform issue.
@Racheld7njf the way that mods have resolved some recent markets make me question whether this will be reliable too.
@Henry38hw So I checked back at the main one that bothered me. A moderator called Stephanie doubled down on an incorrect resolution, but just yesterday, a moderator called Gabrielle actually did the right thing, so a small piece of good news (still deeply unsettling though, that it was allowed to be incorrect at the discretion of mods, for so long)
https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-doge-cause-a-data-breach-durin?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
@Racheld7njf Thank you for explaining. I think we actually do have more common ground. I'm going to give this some more thought. When real money is involved, the platforms should engage in more quality control of the events. They shouldn't be full of markets on effectively coinflipps and dice rolls (of suspicious integrity).
@ChurlishGambit bet against me here? https://manifold.markets/256/will-the-ai-bubble-pop-in-2026 Or have a better market you want to bet on?
@ChurlishGambit lol we're on a gambling website where you bet against other people, especially when their comments imply more confidence than their bets.
@ChurlishGambit What is the problem? I'm asking you to bet on your beliefs, that's why we built the site
In other news, Wintergatan announced today that he has, once and for all, settled on the shape of Marble Machine 3 and is now locking in to build it.
I appreciate how it is explicitly stated that this is not Manifold. This makes resolving the markets about new Manifold features unambiguous.