Will someone manipulate a fire market?

Em alta Urgente Novo

Política Esportes Cripto Finanças Geopolítica Resultados Tecnologia Cultura Mundo Economia Eleições

1kṀ238

2030

45%

chance

ALL

A fire market includes number of fires, fire size, fire containment, etc.

An entity must manipulate the fire itself. The manipulation must have some reasonable intent of manipulating the prediction market.

Things that would count: Creating a firebreak, hiring private firefighters, preventative actions, arson.

Manipulating a website or other fire measurement means will not count.

The market must be a real money market

Must happen before market close

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This could plausibly become a thing where tourists start fires and then run away to another jurisdiction and cash out. Scary

eg. Russian tourists in Greece. There's no chance the Greek government would succeed in getting them extradited

Does the fire market in question have to be on manifold, or could it be on any prediction market platform?

@PhilipDowdell The market must be a real money market

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