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“Every Bay Area House Party” house party in London 2 Prop Bets (add answers!)
18
Ṁ982
Dec 31
85%
At least 10 people hug the Eliezer Yudkowsky body pillow
80%
There's insider trading
74%
Someone who doesn’t know who Aella is attends
67%
Someone is not aware of the first rule
64%
Someone travels over 100 miles to attend
51%
Someone who learned about the party from Manifold attends
Resolvido
YES
Over 40 people attend
Resolvido
YES
An AI Box experiment is held
Resolvido
YES
Someone wears cat ears
Resolvido
YES
Over 50 people attend
Resolvido
YES
Conditional on AI box experiment being held, AI wins at least once (no insider-trading)

If you're reading this, you're invited btw

https://partiful.com/events/gIBlepTMYp8J7nGqapRV

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There are no valid benchmarks on manifold markets. I did a penetration test and in less than 14 hours it broke down and by hour 22 of testing it can completely failed as having reliable benchmarks.

If you can share data that would allow me to resolve the markets please share it

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