Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if none of the following occur before January 1, 2030:
The development of artificial general intelligence, which will be considered to occur if the question When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.
A 10% reduction in the human population, which will be considered to occur if the question By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.
Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year, which will be considered to occur if the question In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year? resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.
The discovery of alien technosignatures, which will be considered to occur if the question Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050? resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.
A worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation? resolves as Yes.
World War III, which will be considered to occur if the question Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050? resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.
A nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war, which will be considered to occur if the question Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050? resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.
This question will resolve as No (meaning this is no longer a "normal" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2030.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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