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Which will be the second of these things to happen in 2026?
18
450Ṁ1709
Jun 30
21%
The EU AI Act fully enters into force (key provisions enforced, not just passed).
16%
The Leader of a top-10 GDP country dies.
13%
Only one of these will happen in 2026.
13%
Rockstar Games officially releases Grand Theft Auto VI.
5%
A new element is officially added to the periodic table.
4%
The executives/government coalitions in at least 3 top-10 GDP countries holds less than 50% of their national parliament at the same time.
3%
A new country is officially recognized by the United Nations.
2%
A formal peace treaty is signed by Ukraine and Russia.
2%
A human lands on the Moon in a crewed mission.
2%
A peer-reviewed paper claims strong biosignatures on another planet or moon and is widely accepted (e.g., cited by NASA/ESA) as credible.
2%
A major social media platform completely bans the use of anonymous accounts.
2%
A country formally declares the climate crisis a national security emergency.
2%
BRICS members, partners, candidates are involved on opposite sites of wars or military campaigns or military strikes or military actions on at least two separate occasions.
2%
A human-to-human virus is declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO.
2%
A country admits to the Nord Stream sabotage.
2%
At least one of the following three countries is part of a war or military campaign or military strike or military action on either side. (North Korea, Turkmenistan, Eritrea)
2%
A new European political party will start being represented in the European Parliament, OR an old European political party will stop being represented in the European Parliament.
2%
None of these will happen in 2026.

This market will close on June 30th 2026! It will be resolved in due time according to the rules below!

(Markets 1-16 are Category 1 Markets.)

A Category 1 Market resolves NO if their event happens when all other Markets are unresolved and resolves YES if they happen when one other Market is resolved NO.

Market 17 will resolve NO on the 31.dec 2026 except if one other Market is resolved NO, then Market 17 resolves to YES on the 31.dec 2026.

Market 18 will resolve YES on the 31.dec 2026 except if Market 17 resolves to YES, then Market 18 resolves to NO on the 31.dec 2026.

ALL MARKETS INSTANTLY RESOLVE NO, AS SOON AS ANY MARKET RESOLVES YES.

Markets:

  1. A formal peace treaty is signed by Ukraine and Russia.

  1. The EU AI Act fully enters into force (key provisions enforced, not just passed).

  1. A peer-reviewed paper claims strong biosignatures on another planet or moon and is widely accepted (e.g., cited by NASA/ESA) as credible.

  1. The executives/government coalitions in at least 3 top-10 GDP countries holds less than 50% of their national parliament at the same time.

  1. A new element is officially added to the periodic table.

  1. A human lands on the Moon in a crewed mission.

  1. A major social media platform completely bans the use of anonymous accounts.

  1. A country formally declares the climate crisis a national security emergency.

  1. A new country is officially recognized by the United Nations.

  1. The Leader of a top-10 GDP country dies.

  1. BRICS members, partners, candidates are involved on opposite sites of wars or military campaigns or military strikes or military actions on at least two separate occasions.

  1. A human-to-human virus is declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO.

  1. A country admits to the Nord Stream sabotage.

  1. At least one of the following three countries is part of a war or military campaign or military strike or military action on either side. (North Korea, Turkmenistan, Eritrea)

  1. Rockstar Games officially releases Grand Theft Auto VI.

  1. A new European political party will start being represented in the European Parliament, OR an old European political party will stop being represented in the European Parliament.

  2. Only one of these will happen in 2026.

  3. None of these will happen in 2026.

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Has any pacific ocean country like Micronesia formally declared the climate crisis (climate change) a national security emergency?

@AlanTennant Not to my knowledge.

@minion7777777777 I think it would be justified.

comprou Ṁ5 YES

Why do only some of these markets sort into percentage order? my ones always do

@AlanTennant There is an option in the top right what to sort them by. You control the sorting, not the creator of the market.

@minion7777777777 thanks 🙂

3 of to 10 GDP countries, minorities but still government discussion area:

@AlanTennant If there is a question, I will answer :).

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