Currently the average adult male in the United States weighs 199.8lbs according to the CDC.

This market resolves to however much the average American male will weigh in 2030, according to the most reliable data available at that time.

If for unforeseen reasons (e.g. rapid adoption of highly effective weightloss supplements, a new culinary breakthrough in fatty deliciousness) the average weight in 2030 is beyond the 185-215 range set at market creation, then the market will resolve to the closest value.