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Will the first AGI build on some novel aspect of the Q* 'breakthrough' that reportedly contributed to the Altman firing?
13
1ká¹€710
2031
41%
chance

Resolves to, uh, consensus of machine learning experts when the first AGI is known

AGI
OpenAI Crisis
Q*
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There's a lot of things that are potentially hard to connect clearly here

comprou á¹€75 YES

I think this is pretty likely. inference-time compute will be used a lot in the SOTA models

If someone still agrees with the <15% figure, bet against me

however they'll almost certainly never confirm that o1 comes out of the Q* developments so will the o1 tech count for the purpose of this market or no?

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24% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
42% chance
Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?
26% chance
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
89% chance
Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?
56% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
67% chance
Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?
17% chance
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