Resolves YES if during the US Presidential term starting January 2025, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to formally declare that "the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President.
The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.
The President invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count. The President exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count - in that event, the question resolves NO immediately, i.e. the President's successor does not count for the question.
(Original pre-election title: Will the next President be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?)
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https://polymarket.com/event/trump-removed-via-25th-amendment-before-2027 is at 14% chance of removal this year (not just initiating the process, but completing the process over any Trump objections).
https://time.com/article/2026/04/06/25th-amendment-constitution-trump-war-iran-threat-insanity/ "Calls for invoking section four grow"
> “The 25th Amendment exists for a reason. The President of the United States is a deranged lunatic, and a national security threat to our country and the rest of the world,” Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D, Ariz.) posted early Monday.
> Several Republicans and former Trump allies have also called on lawmakers and Trump’s Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment
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@Shrewdan that's the president initiating the transfer of power (section 3). This market is about VP and cabinet declaring the president incapacitated (section 4) which has never happened yet.
@Ibozz91 Idk didn't Bush and Biden both do this? 3% seemed absurdly cheap.
Edit: Nevermind. Bush, Biden, and Reagan were all declared temporarily incapacitated under section 3, not section 4.