Resolves YES if a YouTube video that is:
fully generated by AI (script, narration/voice, visuals/animation),
without human actors or live-action footage,
and clearly disclosed as AI-generated by the creator or media,
reaches 100 million total views at any time during 2026.
Includes content made with tools like Sora, Pika, Runway, Suno, ElevenLabs, etc.
Resolves NO if no such video hits 100M views before December 31, 2026.
Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A video will NOT qualify if it is edited or assembled by a human, even if all of its individual components (e.g., visuals, script, audio) are AI-generated.
Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): YouTube Shorts are eligible and will count toward the 100 million view requirement.
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Pessoas também estão operando
A highly viewed example is:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QPPyEOgKwpY
- YouTube
(“This Baby Monkey - Saved an Entire Bus of People”)
Searching about it, I gather:
It has surpassed 150 million views.
The channel specializes in fully AI-generated storytelling shorts.
Lots of reports of it hitting 100M in just 6 days in Jan 2026.
Unfortunately the channel has been deleted so I am not sure if this can be adequately verified.
Found several with up to 700 Million views but most at top of list were made in 2024 or 2025.
See https://promptiex.com/most-watched-ai-videos-on-youtube/
If it can be made in 2025 but just has to reach 100M in 2026 then
#monkey #babydance #cutebaby #funnyanimals #trending #dancevideo #funnyvideo #viraldance #857
is now at 183M and it appears it was at 62M views when the promptiex article above was published Metadata suggests Promptiex article was published 2026-04-21.
@mods Is this enough to resolve?
If not can you clarify if it needs to be produced in 2026 or just reach 100M views in 2026?
If the latter why isn't last video linked sufficient to resolve?
@irilonto Intentionally misresolving markets is not permitted. I've re-opened this market. If you don't want to handle resolution later, that's fine, the mod team will do their best when the time comes. If you think I'm mistaken and this market should resolve now, please post your reasoning and/or sources. You're also welcome to discuss it in the discord.
Continued mis-resolution of your markets is likely to result in a ban. (This feedback applies to all markets, not uniquely this one.)
How does this compare with https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-2cee92f50e35 ?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@Dulaman what's the question?
@irilonto because usually this sort of market would close at the end of 2026 (or before if a video reaches 100 million before the end of 2026). closing 16 months before a possible resolution is odd. we traders want to know why
@irilonto Not sure why you needed the “of course” here. YouTube classifies their media into “Videos” and “Shorts”, and your market asks about videos, so this is a very reasonable question
@irilonto could you please clarify that in the description too? Btw market close says in ~30 minutes
@irilonto This is a warning, follow our guidelines and be excellent to other users. Otherwise you will be banned.