Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
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Dec 31
44%
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This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.

It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.

Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Ukrainian victory" or "Ukrainian victory with territorial losses".

Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the "result" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.

The closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.

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Regardless of the actual outcome, many wars on wikipedia don't have such conclusive results, and that's what I would expect here.

@0xseraphim I'm not saying there are no wars with conclusive results on Wikipedia, I'm saying the outcome would probably be messy enough for this to not be the case here.

@ProjectVictory "most wars" do not resemble the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I replied with examples that do. The legitimacy of your position that the "outcome will be messy" is not in question. I'm illustrating why I think your position is wrong.

There's more and more videos of ukrainian drones flying over the dragon teeth and trenchline fortifications russia dug. Seems those defenses don't mean much in 2026 lol

guess you could even carry ground robots over them with enough drones

There's video on r/combatfootage of what appears to be ukraine's new silent AI drones

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