Resolves based on the analysis of Black Bird group - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856):

For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months.

If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by September 1st, this resolves NA.