Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in July 2026.

This market will resolve NO if, according to a majority of the resolution sources, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in July 2026.

Resolution sources

The resolution sources are:

• Black Bird Group

• AMK Mapping

• Divgen

Close date

This market is set to close at 23:59 UTC on 7 August 2026, although it may resolve sooner.

Clarifications

This market may be voided if a resolution source fails to provide an estimate before the close date.

For related markets, see my Russia-Ukraine dashboard.