Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027? | Axel

Em alta Urgente Novo

Política Esportes Cripto Finanças Geopolítica Resultados Tecnologia Cultura Mundo Economia Eleições

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

5

1kṀ1141

2027

27%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves YES if a peer-reviewed research paper or major tech company publication (e.g. from Google, Meta, X.AI, OpenAI, or Anthropic) by 1/1/2027 demonstrates successful application of diffusion-like techniques (noising and trained denoising) to directly modify LLM weights usefully toward some safety or capabilities-relevant downstream purpose. Resolution will be based on papers indexed on arXiv.org or published on major AI research blogs.

Technical AI Timelines

Mechanistic interpretability

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Pessoas também estão operando

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs?

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters?

Perguntas relacionadas

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs?

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Will the best LLM in 2027 have <250 billion parameters?

© Predita Markets, Inc.•Termos de Uso•Privacidade