Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026? | Axel

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Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?

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For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.

I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market. I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.

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Let's say that a similar supply chain risk designation was given to an open weight models as was given to Claude would this be enough to resolve the market "yes"?

@nocap Good question. My understanding is that the chain risk designation only restricts whether the US government and defense contractors can use Anthropic’s models in covered contracts, right?

comprou Ṁ30 NO

how would they even try this?

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Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

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LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

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