Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
8
100Ṁ3852028
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Like this one in the UK in the 80s and 90s:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_BSE_outbreak
Must be above base rate in some sense to be an outbreak.
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