Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
20
225Ṁ27112031
16%
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Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the specified period, the U.S. economy meets both of the following conditions:
1. Duration and Depth of Economic Decline:
The U.S. experiences a continuous period of economic downturn lasting at least 24 months, during which there is a cumulative decline in real GDP of 10% or more.
2. Unemployment Rate:
The national unemployment rate reaches 15% or higher for six consecutive months.
Data Sources:
GDP data will be sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Unemployment data will be sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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