Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?
15
100á¹€928Jun 30
52%
chance
12
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index closes at a level that is 20% or more below its all-time closing high at any point before June 30, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
The S&P 500 is down ~7% year-to-date. Goldman Sachs warns severe oil disruptions could drag it to 5,400 (a 22% decline from January peak). Moody recession model at 49% probability. Oil price spikes have preceded every US recession since WWII except COVID.
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