Prop resolves Yes if a US federal or state entity files a market manipulation or insider trading case involving Polymarket or Kalshi by April 15.

This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:

https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest

The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:

https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7

This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.