Will Polymarket or Kalshi make a whalebait market in 2026?
17
105á¹€847Dec 31
15%
chance
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Markets like "Resolves YES if this market closes at above 50%" or "Resolves NO if the market drops below 10%" or something would qualify.
The current derivative market on the Jesus Christ market (https://polymarket.com/event/jesus-christ-return-before-2027-odds-5-monday-night-12-1-am) would NOT qualify, but only ever so slightly.
I will not bet on this market, so I can judge what constitutes whalebait objectively.
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@Simon74fe see the couple of examples. Outcome essentially untethered to reality, or self-referential, so that it's a battle of wills or volume or something of that nature. Same as on Manifold.
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