This market resolves to YES if the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election is widely categorized by credible political analysts, foreign policy scholars, or major news publications as a "neoconservative" (neo-con) or a "liberal hawk." It resolves to NO if the winner is primarily characterized as a realist, non-interventionist/isolationist, foreign policy progressive/dove, or otherwise does not fit either classification.
Because ideological foreign policy labels can be subjective, the market will resolve according to the following hierarchy:
Consensus of Major Sources: If a clear majority of major sources (e.g., Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Brookings Institution, Cato Institute, RAND, CSIS) consistently describe the president-elect's foreign policy worldview under either designation by Inauguration Day 2029.
Community Poll Fallback: If there is no clear journalistic or academic consensus, or if the president-elect’s foreign policy orientation is contested or ambiguous, the market creator may resolve the market based on a community poll or explicit public consensus at the close of the election cycle.
The market resolves once the 2028 presidential election has been certified and the winner is officially determined.
1,000