Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
This market may resolve prior to official certification of the electoral college votes if the election has been called by all major decision desks.
Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other". Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.
See also:
/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-be-the-two-major-party-nom
/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237
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@Krantz He is an option in this market at 0.6% https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA
@DylanSlagh Thanks. I've already placed a small wager there. I'd just like to see it in the Manifold Politics version, as that's the one that most of the fancy charts will eventually pull from.
@ManifoldPolitics I think you could add at least the top 5 of both on this list that aren't already added, Nate Silver and Galen are decently accurate/successful creators of election models, so I think their top 10 are all plausible enough democratic presidential candidates and thus plausible 2028 president-elects. https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1912598180484771998