Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

1kṀ1437

2029

11%

chance

ALL

This will resolve YES if by the end of 2028, someone causes a significant disruption in the global semiconductor supply chain by the disruption of high-purity quartz mines. If an attack happens close to the resolution date, trading will be extended to see the effects.

Technology

Economics

Semiconductors

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Pessoas também estão operando

Will the US graphite supply chain shift exceed 50 on a scale of 1-100 by March 22, 2026?

58% chance

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

25% chance

Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?

7% chance

Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?

15% chance

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

53% chance

[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

61% chance

China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?

45% chance

Will samarium oxide prices increase by more than 25% globally by Q2 2026?

53% chance

Will there be CPUs manufactured on diamond wafers by 2100?

51% chance

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Ordenar por:

I don't think that text is very realistic. The US isn't the only place with a high-purity quartz mine, and it is very difficult to contaminate them even if you have a crop duster with that specific powder. This is a very strong hypothetical.

comprou Ṁ45 NO

To be clear, you don't mean "disrupt" in the silicon-valley sense (i.e. make a splash in the industry). You mean like, physically intervene in the mining process. Right?