Will Russia control 100% of donbass before 2027 ?

100Ṁ1761

Dec 31

17%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on liveuamap as the source for determining Russian control of Donbass territory.

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Donbas literally means “Donetsk (River) Basin” - parts of Kharkiv are in the Donbas as well. You can see the Donetsk River Basin here in Purple.

@Hermann , according to which sources? Deepstate? Liveuamap? ISW?

https://deepstatemap.live/

https://liveuamap.com/

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 ISW

Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.

Previous estimates by source

Poulet volant

85.51% - 31 May 2025

86.36% - 30 June 2025

87.14% - 31 July 2025

87.83% - 31 August 2025

87.97% - 30 September 2025

88.10% - 31 October 2025

88.40% - 30 November 2025

Creamy caprice

86.63% - 30 June 2025

87.07% - 27 July 2025

87.78% - 26 August 2025

88.44% - 30 September 2025

89.03% - 27 October 2025

89.35% - 28 November 2025

89.68% - 26 December 2025

Suriyakmaps

86.41% - 8 June 2025

88.56% - 18 September 2025

90.17% - 25 December 2025

credit to https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x

@1bets according to liveuamap

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