Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
15
1ká¹€4832030
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
National-level politicians meaning:
Reigning Monarchs
Heads of state
Cabinent Secretaries/Ministers
National legislators
Supreme court justices or equivalent
Attorneys General or equivalent
List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Greece
Germany
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030?
40% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
65% chance
Will any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
7% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Will a sitting or former US President be killed by 2030?
17% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
15% chance
Will I be murdered before 2030?
3% chance
Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?
9% chance
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
11% chance
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
22% chance