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Will more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?
23
1kṀ1210
2030
9%
chance

WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.

List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:

  1. Australia

  2. Austria

  3. Belgium

  4. Canada

  5. Czech Republic

  6. Denmark

  7. Estonia

  8. France

  9. Greece

  10. Germany

  11. Iceland

  12. Italy

  13. Latvia

  14. Luxembourg

  15. Netherlands

  16. New Zealand

  17. Norway

  18. Spain

  19. Sweden

  20. Switzerland

  21. United Kingdom

  22. United States

WEIRD Doomsday
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Ordenar por:

It should be possible to arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8.

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
22% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…

Estonia and Latvia on the list, but not Lithuania... Based!

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Pessoas também estão operando

Will the world population decrease before 2035?
20% chance
Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030?
40% chance
Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
15% chance
Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
54% chance
Will the annual death rate at age 100 in the US drop below 1% before 2050?
47% chance
Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?
10% chance
Will the set of the 2023 top 5 causes of death be different by 2030? (In USA)
53% chance
Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
24% chance
Will life expectancy in any country pass 90 before 2030?
11% chance
Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
19% chance
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