Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
22
1kṀ17562031
9%
chance
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Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.
Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030. (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c). Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.
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